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Trainers & Jockeys to bet on at Saratoga

TRAINERS TO BET ON AT SARATOGA

Determining which trainers to bet under which circumstances is a good place to start. After analyzing five years of Saratoga trainer statistics available through StatsMaster. We’ve compiled a list of trainers to watch (and wager on) during the Saratoga meet. With a bit of luck, they’ll generate hefty profits this summer.

Looking for longshots? Gary Contessa is your man. Since 2014 Contessa has sent out 14 winners at 8-1 or higher at 8-1 or higher, three more than runners-up Bill Mott and George Weaver. Four of Contessa’s winners came last year, when his longshot runners generated a +27% ROI. But 12 of his 14 longshot winners came on dirt, so if you’re looking for longshots on turf, Weaver (nine longshot grass winners) and Mott (eight longshot winners on the turf) have been better bets.

When it comes to first-time starters, the tide has turned and Chad Brown is now the dominant conditioner. In 2018 Brown went 9-for-39 (23%) with horses making their debuts, including seven 2-year-old winners. Todd Pletcher, long the leading trainer of juveniles at Saratoga, had a tougher season, going just 1-for-27 with his first-time starters (all 2-year-olds).

Setting aside his first-time starters, Pletcher remains a force in dirt routes. Over the last two years, he’s gone 17-for-59 (29%) in dirt routes. Jimmy Jerkens is another trainer to watch under these conditions. In 2018 his dirt-route runners went 5-for-11 (45%).

He doesn’t ship horses to Saratoga very often, but Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has been almost unstoppable at the Spa. Since 2016 Baffert has gone 8-for-16 (50%), generating a massive +123$ ROI. All of his victories came in graded stakes races.

Among trainers with 100 or more starters at Saratoga since 2016, D. Wayne Lukas boasts the highest ROI, with his winners from 126 starters generating profits of +38%. If a hefty winning percentage is what you’re after, check out Jason Servis, who has conditioned 29 winners from 111 starters, good for a 26% strike rate and a +8% ROI.

Speaking of Servis, when he claims a horse and runs it back at Saratoga, watch out. Since 2016 Servis has compiled a 9-for-18 (50%) record with new acquisitions at Saratoga, generating a +81& ROI.

A quietly successful trainer at the 2018 Saratoga meet was Anthony Quartarolo, who went 5-for-15 (33%) to post a hefty +104% ROI.

When Weaver sends out a favorite, you know they’re probably a good bet. Since 2014 Weaver has gone 21-for-46 (46%) with favorites, a strike rate so impressive that betting all of Weavers favored runners would have generated a +30% ROI. Yet even these numbers aren’t quite as impressive as those generated by Anthony Dutrow (9-for-17, +53% ROI) and Leah Gyarmati (7-for-8, +156% ROI).

JOCKEYS TO BET ON AT SARATOGA

Some of the top jockeys in North America will ride at the Saratoga meet, so as a handicapping aid, I’ve used StatsMaster to pour through five years of Saratoga Jockey statistics in search of riders who are good bets under a variety of circumstances. Who is best on main track? How about the turf course? Who is best at riding longshots, or a high percentage of winners?

Here are a few jockeys to watch (and wager on) during the 2019 Saratoga meet

Among jockeys riding 50 or more races at the 2018 Saratoga meet, Joel Rosario was the only rider to produce a positive ROI. Equal win bets on each of his 165 mounts would have generated a 22% profit, and he was particularly effective on dirt, where his 19 wins from 92 rides generated a 59% profit. Junior Alvarado also performed well with a break-even ROI from 150 mounts, and he performed even better on dirt, where his ROI was +44%.

In terms of winning percentage, Javier Castellano was the top jockey of 2018 among riders with 50 or more mounts, prevailing at a 21% rate. John Velazquez had a quiet meet with just 15% winners, but Velazquez had a 22% win rate from 2015 through 2017.

He doesn’t ride extensively at Saratoga, but in terms of winning percentage and ROI, it’s hard to top the stats compiled by Mike Smith. The Hall of Fame rider has posted a stellar 10-for-20 record since 2016, a 50% strike rate that has generated profits of +91%.

If you’re playing trifectas, you’ll generally want to include Jose Ortiz and Irad Ortiz Jr. on your tickets. They typically finish in the money at a ~50% rate.

Manny Franco might not be a household name, but this underrated jockey has been highly successful riding longshots on turf. In 2017 he guided 16 grass winners from 115 mounts (14%) to generate a +54% ROI, and he produced a positive return again in 2018, when he won with 17 of his 117 mounts (15%) for a +3% ROI. Over the last two years, he has guided 16 horses to victory at odds of 8-1 or more (five more than any other jockey), including 13 longshot winners on grass.

In dirt routes no one rides better than Velazquez and Castellano. Betting them blindly since 2014 would have produced positive ROIs of 4% and 27%, respectively, with impressive win percentages to boot. Velazquez put on a riding clinic in 2017 with 10 wins from 19 mounts (53%) in dirt routes, and he followed up with a solid 6-for-25 (24%) record in 2018.

GOOD LUCK!